Flight delay forecast due to weather using Data Mining

A Data Mining model that is able to predict if a flight is going to leave late due to a weather delay. It is used, to be able to get a later connection if you have a connecting flight.

New Keynesian Model Features that Can Reproduce Lead, Lag and Persistence Patterns

This paper uses a new method for describing dynamic comovement and persistence in economic time series which builds on the contemporaneous forecast error method developed in den Haan (2000). This data description method is then used to address issues in New Keynesian model performance in two ways. First, well known data patterns, such as output and inflation leads and lags and inflation persistence, are decomposed into forecast horizon components to give a more complete description of the data patterns. These results show that the well known lead and lag patterns between output and inflation arise mostly in the medium term forecasts horizons. Second, the data summary method is used to investigate a rich New Keynesian model with many modeling features to see which of these features can reproduce lead, lag and persistence patterns seen in the data. Many studies have suggested that a backward looking component in the Phillips curve is needed to match the data, but our simulations show this is not necessary. We show that a simple general equilibrium model with persistent IS curve shocks and persistent supply shocks can reproduce the lead, lag and persistence patterns seen in the data.

Employment comovements at the sectoral level over the business cycle

This paper extends the technique suggested by den Haan (2000) to investigate contemporaneous as well as lead and lag correlations among economic data for a range of forecast horizons. The technique provides a richer picture of the economic dynamics generating the data and allows one to investigate which variables lead or lag others and whether the lead or lag pattern is short term or long term in nature. The technique is applied to monthly sectoral level employment data for the U.S. and shows that among the ten industrial sectors followed by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, six tend to lead the other four. These six have high correlations indicating that the structural shocks generating the data movements are mostly in common. Among the four lagging industries, some lag by longer intervals than others and some have low correlations with the leading industries indicating that these industries are partially influenced by structural shocks beyond those generating the six leading industries.

The New Keynesian Monetary Model: Does it Show the Comovement Between Output and Inflation in the U.S.?

Published as article in: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (2008), 32(May), pp. 1466-1488.

Is there a Phillips Curve in the US and the EU15 Countries? An empirical investigation

This paper studies the comovement between output and inflation in the EU15 countries. Following den Haan (2000), I use the correlations of VAR forecast errors at different horizons in order to analyze the output-inflation relationship. The empirical results show that eight countries display a significant positive comovement between output and inflation. Moreover, the empirical evidence suggests that a Phillips curve phenomenom is more likely to be detected in countries where inflation is more stable.

The Effect of Data Revisions on the Basic New Keynesian Model

This paper proposes an extended version of the basic New Keynesian monetary (NKM) model which contemplates revision processes of output and inflation data in order to assess the importance of data revisions on the estimated monetary policy rule parameters and the transmission of policy shocks. Our empirical evidence based on a structural econometric approach suggests that although the initial announcements of output and inflation are not rational forecasts of revised output and inflation data, ignoring the presence of non well-behaved revision processes may not be a serious drawback in the analysis of monetary policy in this framework. However, the transmission of inflation-push shocks is largely affected by considering data revisions. The latter being especially true when the nominal stickiness parameter is estimated taking into account data revision processes.

High-Throughput Sequencing of microRNAs in Peripheral Blood Mononuclear Cells: Identification of Potential Weight Loss Biomarkers

INTRODUCTION: MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are being increasingly studied in relation to energy metabolism and body composition homeostasis. Indeed, the quantitative analysis of miRNAs expression in different adiposity conditions may contribute to understand the intimate mechanisms participating in body weight control and to find new biomarkers with diagnostic or prognostic value in obesity management. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was the search for miRNAs in blood cells whose expression could be used as prognostic biomarkers of weight loss. METHODS: Ten Caucasian obese women were selected among the participants in a weight-loss trial that consisted in following an energy-restricted treatment. Weight loss was considered unsuccessful when <5% of initial body weight (non-responders) and successful when >5% (responders). At baseline, total miRNA isolated from peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) was sequenced with SOLiD v4. The miRNA sequencing data were validated by RT-PCR. RESULTS: Differential baseline expression of several miRNAs was found between responders and non-responders. Two miRNAs were up-regulated in the non-responder group (mir-935 and mir-4772) and three others were down-regulated (mir-223, mir-224 and mir-376b). Both mir-935 and mir-4772 showed relevant associations with the magnitude of weight loss, although the expression of other transcripts (mir-874, mir-199b, mir-766, mir-589 and mir-148b) also correlated with weight loss. CONCLUSIONS: This research addresses the use of high-throughput sequencing technologies in the search for miRNA expression biomarkers in obesity, by determining the miRNA transcriptome of PBMC. Basal expression of different miRNAs, particularly mir-935 and mir-4772, could be prognostic biomarkers and may forecast the response to a hypocaloric diet.

Dialog Systems based on Markov decision processes over two real tasks

In this work the state of the art of the automatic dialogue strategy management using Markov decision processes (MDP) with reinforcement learning (RL) is described. Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDP) are also described. To test the validity of these methods, two spoken dialogue systems have been developed. The first one is a spoken dialogue system for weather forecast providing, and the second one is a more complex system for train information. With the first system, comparisons between a rule-based system and an automatically trained system have been done, using a real corpus to train the automatic strategy. In the second system, the scalability of these methods when used in larger systems has been tested.

Generación dinámica de parrillas de productos en Magento en base al análisis de datos de fuentes abiertas

En este Trabajo de Fin de Grado desarrollado en la empresa On4U, se ha implementado un módulo para Magento, cuya función principal es la generación dinámica de parrillas de productos en base al análisis del tiempo meteorológico, teniendo en cuenta la localización del cliente. Además, el módulo guarda automáticamente las compras efectuadas, junto con la información externa, para un posible análisis posterior que relacione los hábitos de compra con el tiempo meteorológico. Aunque se haya centrado en este caso de uso, se ha desarrollado con un enfoque modular, de tal manera que fuese fácil de integrar en el módulo el uso de otra fuente abierta de información. Para poder realizar el proyecto, se ha tenido que profundizar en varios conceptos relacionados con la plataforma de eCommerce Magento, entre ellos, el patrón Modelo-Vista-Controlador y el ciclo de vida de una petición.

Makina erreminta sektorearen nazioartekotze estrategiak: DanobatGroup kasua

Euskal makina erreminta enpresen nazioartekotze estrategien azterketa da ikergai nagusia, arloaren alderdi orokorrak eta etorkizunerako aurreikuspenak gauzatzen badira ere. Globalizazio eta mundu interkonektatu honetan enpresa hazteko irtenbide desberdinak aztertu dira, merkatuaren eskakizunetara egokituz. Kasu praktiko gisa hazkunde eredutzat nazioartekotzearen aldeko apustua egin duen DanobatGroup enpresa talde kooperatiboa ikertu da. Enpresa eredugarria da garai zail hauetan, egindako lanaren erakusgarri eta atzerrirako urrats sendoekin, pertsonen trebetasunari eta konpromisoei esker, erronkak gainditu dituelako. Ikerketa burututa, sektorearen barne eskaria urria denez, Euskal enpresek nazioartekotu beharra dutela ikusi da.

Descripción de empresas en crisis financiera: el caso de Argentina en las décadas del 1990 y 2000

[ES]Las investigaciones sobre la predicción de quiebras empresariales que se han venido dando en los últimos cincuenta años han indicado que la crisis financiera de las empresas ha sido y es un tema de preocupación en el mundo, también en Argentina. El horizonte de análisis de este trabajo comprende dos períodos de estabilidad económica en la década de 1990 y la del 2000, con la intención de comparar los indicadores financieros que explican la crisis empresarial en cada uno de ellos. De esta manera, se procura continuar con el aporte de evidencia empírica en esta línea de investigación, mediante el análisis de los indicadores, que según la literatura, influyen en el pronóstico de riesgo de crisis financiera. Estos estudios descriptivos previos a los inferenciales pueden ser replicados en otras economías emergentes, como herramienta de diagnostico de la vulnerabilidad financiera de las empresas.